The ALN Spring Programme 2025 at Luton Hoo Hotel was a chance to take stock of the rapid transformations reshaping the automotive industry. With over 90 senior executives in attendance, the discussions were both data-rich and thought-provoking, offering a mix of optimism and realism about the road ahead. From regulatory shifts and electrification to evolving consumer behaviour and the new normal for automotive retail, the insights shared by Peter Campbell, Mike Hawes, Glenn Mercer, Steve Young, and Ian Plummer were particularly telling. Here’s a closer look at what stood out and why it matters.

Peter Campbell provided a comprehensive overview of the geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. His analysis highlighted the growing complexity of the global environment, from trade policies and supply chain disruptions to regulatory pressures and economic headwinds. The message was clear: automotive businesses must stay agile and be ready to pivot as external factors evolve. With Brexit’s legacy still reshaping trade rules and the impact of tariffs looming, flexibility in strategy and supply chains will be crucial. The takeaway was that success depends on how quickly companies adapt to changing policies and mitigate risks through diversified supply chains and innovative trade strategies.

Mike Hawes followed with a deep dive into the UK’s progress on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and the regulatory framework driving electrification. BEVs accounted for nearly 20% of new car sales in 2024, which, while impressive, fell short of the 22% ZEV mandate target. The discussion also touched on the rules of origin, which could lead to tariffs if EV components aren’t sufficiently sourced locally. For manufacturers, the key will be to strengthen local supply chains and invest in battery production to avoid these pitfalls.

The challenges of balancing policy ambitions with market realities are clear. The government’s push for electrification is ambitious, but current consumer demand lags behind these targets. With only about one in ten private buyers opting for an EV, the need for supportive policies—such as incentives, investment in charging infrastructure, and more transparent communication of the benefits of EVs—was a recurring theme. The path to net zero will require regulatory mandates and a holistic approach that makes EVs attractive and practical for the average consumer.

Glenn Mercer and Steve Young focused on the longer-term outlook, examining the post-2030 automotive landscape. Their insights are critical for capital allocation decisions being made today. Mercer’s “Back to Basics” analysis suggested that while overall dealer profitability might remain stable, the sources of that profit are set to shift significantly. As new car margins shrink, the trend points towards a growing reliance on used cars, aftersales services, and subscriptions. Mercer’s comparison of the UK and U.S. markets highlighted the similarities and the stark differences in consumer preferences and regulatory pressures. His view that the traditional dealership model will have to evolve rapidly—becoming more experienced-driven and service-oriented—struck a chord with many attendees.

Steve Young reinforced this view, arguing that the industry must accept that there is no “new normal” in the traditional sense. The landscape will continue to shift rapidly, making long-term planning incredibly challenging. Young’s advice was pragmatic: embrace operational excellence and focus on what can be controlled—cost management, inventory efficiency, and customer experience. He highlighted the risks of betting too heavily on unproven models, such as agency sales, without a clear path to profitability. The takeaway was that adaptability, rather than scale alone, will be the key differentiator in the years ahead.

Ian Plummer’s session brought a wealth of data to the discussion, focusing on shifting consumer behaviour and market trends. February’s figures showed a promising improvement in consumer confidence and affordability, which could help support sales volumes in the months ahead. The narrowing price gap between EVs and ICE vehicles—from 35% last year to 24% now—suggests that EVs are becoming more accessible to a broader audience. However, the data also revealed a significant challenge: consumers are 50% less loyal to brands when it comes to EVs than traditional ICE vehicles. This erosion of brand loyalty means manufacturers must work much harder to retain customers—likely through enhanced service offerings, subscription models, and seamless digital experiences.

Ian Plummer’s analysis of the used car market was another highlight. Despite some price corrections, the market remains robust, particularly for nearly-new vehicles. Used EVs are seeing record demand, up 57% year-on-year, a promising sign that electrification is starting to permeate all market levels. However, managing residual values and ensuring transparency around battery health will be crucial to sustaining this momentum. For dealerships, the message was clear: data-driven pricing and efficient inventory management will be essential to navigate the ongoing volatility in both new and used car markets.

Beyond these core presentations, other speakers offered valuable perspectives on AI, workforce evolution, and leadership. Sophie Birshan from Google discussed the growing role of AI in automotive retail, from chatbots enhancing customer service to predictive analytics optimising inventory. The focus was on using AI to augment rather than replace human capabilities, ensuring that dealerships can offer both efficiency and a personal touch. Meanwhile, Keith Conway’s session on workforce transformation highlighted the urgent need for upskilling to meet the demands of an increasingly digital and electrified industry. His emphasis on broadening the talent pipeline—through apprenticeships and partnerships with educational institutions—resonated strongly.

ALN’s initiatives, including the ALN Future Leaders Programme, also took centre stage. The network’s focus on mentoring and developing the next generation of automotive leaders reflects a long-term commitment to the industry’s sustainability. By fostering an environment of collaboration and open dialogue, ALN plays a vital role in helping its members navigate uncertainty and align strategies.

In conclusion, the ALN Spring Programme 2025 clarified that the automotive industry is at a crossroads. Success will depend on how well companies can balance the push for electrification with the need for profitability, how effectively they can adapt to shifting consumer preferences, and how quickly they can evolve their business models to reflect the new realities of a post-2030 world. As we look ahead to the next ALN meeting, it’s evident that the industry’s future will be shaped by those who can stay agile, embrace innovation, and lead with a clear vision.

Have a great week!